The Afghan Election Commission released in Kabul on Tuesday the provisional list of candidates for the presidential election due on April 5 next year. As many as 16 out of 26 candidates have been disqualified on various technical grounds. But the good thing is that all ‘front runners’ remain on the arena, which promises a ‘level playing field.’
The most obvious thing is that a whole new generation of Afghan politicians — ‘midnight’s children’ who appeared after the 2001 US invasion — has surfaced alongside hardened veterans. Over half a dozen former ministers in President Hamid Karzai’s cabinet figure as candidates and at the same time there is no dearth of old war horses, either.
Yet, they are happily mixing in a fascinating melting pot. Second, Afghan democracy is developing in a progressive direction that puts India’s ‘identity politics’ to shame. True, ethnic, religious and ethnic identities have become the main consideration in making political alliances — rather than ideological affinity. In fact, ideology takes a remote back seat. However, the attempt is to bridge the ethnic and religious divides rather than fuel polarization.
Thus, former World Bank official and finance minister Ashraf Ghani (Pashtun) who was once billed as America’s favorite, has picked the colorful ‘warlord’ Rashid Dostum (Uzbek) as his vice-presidential nominee, although Dostum’s background is completely antithetical — trained in the former Soviet military academy in Frunze, having served in the communist government of Najibullah as trusted militia commander, and condemned by western human rights bodies as having perpetrated some of the most horrendous war crimes against hundreds of Taliban prisoners in 2001. Ghani’s second running mate is Sarwar Danish (Hazara), former justice minister.
Like Ghani, almost every serious candidate has chosen as running mate someone from the ‘other’ ethnic groups — former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah (half-Pashtun, half-Tajik) has picked Mohammed Mohaqiq (Hazara Shia); former Mujahideen leader Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayyaf (Pashtun) has partnered with the iconic figure of Afghan resistance Ismail Khan (Tajik); former foreign minister Zilmay Rassoul (Pashtun) is running with Ahmed Zia Massoud (Tajik), who is the brother of the legendary commander late Ahmed Shah Massoud, and Habiba Sarabi (Hazara Shia); Qayum Karzai, brother of president Hamid Karzai, has picked as his mates Wahidullah Shahrani (Uzbek) who was minister of mines, and Abrahim Qasimi, a Hazara Shia MP.
The result is that there is no ‘vote bank’ that is going to remain intact, ready to be co-opted. Thus, Abdullah’s running mate Mohaqiq cannot deliver either the non-Pashtun votes from Mazar-i-Sharif (where Dostum is helping Ghani’s candidacy) or the Hazara Shia votes (given the patronage Danish, Ghani’s running mate, enjoys from the lord and master of the Bamyan Mohammed Karin Khalili, present vice-president.) Actually, Habiba Sarabi who is sharing the ticket of Rassoul and Massoud is herself an ethnic Hazara and former governor of Bamyan.
Alas, even the ‘Panjshiri’ votes are going to be split between Massoud and Abdullah. As for Tajik votes, neither Massoud nor Abdullah can compete with Ismail Kahn, who is the virtual emir of the Tajiks of western Afghanistan. Curiously, all the ten presidential candidates are Pashtuns.
Indeed, there is no Northern Alliance identity in this election. The vaulting ambitions of the NA leaders have pitted them against each other. The Mujahideen camp is equally split. What can be said with reasonable certainty is that in the first round on April 5, there won’t be a winner, which in turn will necessitate a run-off.
A run-off will mean the kaleidoscope will change totally and all sorts of wheelings and dealings will ensue involving power brokers. Nonetheless, the mandate is going to be pan-Afghan, which is a good thing to happen.
To be sure, the Americans have lost control of Afghan democracy, which has acquired a native flavor and dynamics of its own. The Obama administration seems to have realised, finally, the futility of projecting American ‘exceptionalism’ into the Hindu Kush.
Is there a ‘dark horse’? Hmmm. Watch out for Qayum Karzai. A blue-blooded Popalzai from Kandahar, the richest Afghan on the entire planet, brother of the incumbent president — that’s a formidable mix already. Besides, the thumb rule is that the Karzais hate to lose — be it in business or politics or power play.
Finally, there is the ‘known unknown’. What do the Taliban make of all this? They have ridiculed the election as a sham. But then, behind the curtain, there could also be conversations taking place with individual candidates. None of the candidates is running on an ‘anti-Taliban’ platform. On the contrary, everyone is agreed that there should be reconciliation with the Taliban and the fighting should end. Isn’t there a surreal look in all this – as if a last-minute dress rehearsal is going on in the green room while the curtain call is awaited?
This article was originally published by Rediff, here, and is republished with permission from the author.
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